Sunday, April 09, 2006

In Defense of Infrastructure Spending

In today’s economic thought, the importance of infrastructure for sustained economic development is well recognised. Several studies have been done on the subject such as The World Bank's World Development Report(WDR) of 1994 which discussed links that exist between infrastructure investment and economic growth and UNDP's Human Development Report(HDR) of 1996 which delineated the links that have to be created so that economic growth translates into human development. Reading them together, makes it evident that infrastructure investment and human development cannot be divorced from one another. It is however, of utmost importance to accelerate and sustain human development as well. No country, according to the HDR, that started with fast growth and slow human development has been able to sustain its growth without the corresponding increase in the productivity of the people.

However, to kick start and fuel growth basic infrastructure development is necessary, without which a country will remain uncompetitive and therefore unable to use its people power effectively in a global environment. India has serious inadequacies in its physical infrastructure which limits its growth rate. Given that resources are very scarce, all investments, including investment in brick and mortar, must be made to have a positive impact on human development. This is easier stated than accomplished. It will not happen automatically. A conscious commitment to keeping people's concerns at the heart of all investment plans must be nurtured, and innovative strategies must be devised. If the national development strategy is people-centered in this way, international technical cooperation also will have better and bigger impact. To implement strategies for long term development, a controlled environment will be more suitable.

A government should think of itself exactly as a very large company, with the profit motive which drives a company, to be replaced by a people development motive. A company to increase profitability will have to make capital expenditure from time to time. A company shying away from capital expenditure due to lack of funds or any other excuse would damage its profitability and competitiveness in the long term. Similarly, with the long term object of the welfare of the people in mind, a government has to make capital expenditure, not just in terms of infrastructure such as roads and electricity, but also by building schools and hospitals, as well as constant innovation to improve the efficiency of the government machinery. To say that they are always running at a deficit and therefore sit on their asses will obviously develop into a vicious cycle where the much needed revenues cannot be generated without the prior expenditure.

Two-thirds of India's people live in villages. The village in India is not at all idyllic. It is a hard place to live in. And the reason for that is lack of basic infrastructure. This lack can account for a good deal of the differences in capabilities and opportunities of people in villages compared to their counterparts in towns and cities. There is a positive relationship between human development, infrastructure development, rural-urban equity, and economic growth.

Kerala today is well equipped to accelerate growth and economic opportunities because it has established a good human development foundation. It has the highest ranking in India according to the Human Development Index developed by the UNDP. Between 1987 and 1992, Kerala's annual rate of growth in per capita income (6.2 per cent) was almost twice the average for India (3.8 per cent). With a little help from improving efficiency via infrastructure development, Kerala’s growth rate can easily cross over into double digits.

A lack of infrastructure increases the costs of manufacturing and therefore affects the final consumer adversely. For example, in China a truck can cover 1500 kms per day, whereas in India, the average truck covers only 300 kms. This will obviously increase the costs of freight substantially, and further will increase manufacturing costs due to the stocking costs which rise due to the delay in delivering goods. The bad roads especially in Kerala, cause tyres to wear out much faster than other states in India. And of course, there is also the time factor. In Tamil Nadu, a bus can cover an average of 65 kms per hour on any national or state highway. In Kerala however, an average of 40 kms will be considered good. On my day to day travel to and from Changanachery on a state highway, my car gives me an average of 13 kms to a litre of diesel costing me Rs. 2.5 per km. In Tamil Nadu however, I get an average of 19 kms to a litre which costs me only Rs. 1.74 per km, which makes it 43% more expensive in Kerala. Multiply that by the thousands and thousands of cars and so on, and you get your money for the highway right there.

Some people might be opposed to better roads, cause their products sales might be adversely affected if tyres and so on last longer… Ehem..

How will I collect my revenues and give maximum benefit to all my people? Well I haven’t figured it ALL out yet, but I know I can. In time.

The problem with a democracy is exactly what my good friend Paulose mentioned in his comment to my previous post, which is that in a democracy, people will get what the majority want, like cheap electricity, if that’s what they want. However, people have no idea of how best that they will get what they want in the long term, what will best for a better future for their children and for the country at large. Therefore, they might argue against introducing STD phonecalls, saying that only the rich wanted it. You all remember the time that we had to make trunk calls right? Well, if we had kept listening to them….

As a benevolent dictator, I will listen to my people, and do what’s best for them in the long term so that they have a better future. As a parent takes decisions for their young children, since what they want is not always good for them, as a dictator, I shall have to be firm but loving.

8 comments:

manji said...

650 km in 17 hours. remember the chennai drive. no hanky panky (this is for chori)...just bad roads.

thejus said...
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Kochukandhari said...
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paulose said...

A bit heavy for a blog don't you think. Your readership is going to plummet my friend.
Point about special interests wanting bad roads duly noted. :)
A benevolent dictator is a good thing. Look at China. The progress they are making. The only problem is.. is it sustainable. Mao was a benevolent dictator too. He did the things he did to help his countrymen with good intentions. But the road to hell is paved with good intentions and a couple of million people died of starvation. So you may think you know whats best and how to allocate funds. You would take all the money being spent on subsidies and wasteful government spending and inefficient governement companies and spend it instead on wonderful things like roads, electricity and education. You would make peace with the neighbouring countries and cut defense spending in half. But.. and here's the big but.. what if the guy who comes after you or the guy who comes after him is a crackpot. Who decides that India needs to expand its boundaries. Who decides that all non Hindus must pay a tax.
Dictators rule by force. Democratic leaders rule by charm, good looks and effectiveness. Usually in that order.

I think that rather than try to do things by themselves the government should privatise as much as possible. The beauty of the private sector is that, being selfish and motivated by profit, they always find the most efficient way to get something done. If you build a road, charge a toll for it so the people who use it pay for it rather than all the rest who are taking the train. Privatise road building, trains, planes, power and water, and anything else you can think of. Harness the power and creativity of the private sector.

Ro said...

Yes, I guess my readership will drop, but then again, I'm not doing this to be popular...

Well a dictatorship will have its own problems, just as any system of governance. Thats why we should have an elected dictatorship, or even an elected government with a 20 year term, during the course of which the people only have an option of ousting him by getting some 3/4ths majority or something, but not an option to vote against any particular legistlation during the period.

Regarding privatisation, sure the private sector is a great way to get a lot of things done, but maybe not all things. for example consider the telecom companies and their promise to provide rural connectivity... most of the operators will rather pay the fine than start "x" percentage of their operations in rural areas. that kind of attitude will create a larger divide between living standards in rural and urban environments. Even private sector banks pay fines since they dont wish to extend rural credit or set up rural operations. these things will have to ultimately be done by the government. however, the fines collected from these companies will help the government on implementing these goals....

meghant said...

now i see your game plan: a) dissolve company; b) take over kerala and showcase positive results there, which are already assured given the relative infrastructural advantages; c) take over india. hmm

problem: if we have a dictatorship of any form, we'll get bombed by the hawks in washington. any preemptive measures? i guess, the show of democracy helps..

also, i dont see why you insist on a distinction between government and private sector - as on your very terms, there is none. the govt has as its aim solely economic growth, for which one sub-factor is human-infrastructure development; so is it for the private sector; only in the govt's case, it can absolve itself from any competition. in which case, the private sector will be greatly hindered by the govt and eventually the whole will morph into a mutually hindering machine or whatever a bureaucratic-communist enterprise can look like. no?

CED, Traffic Dept

Ro said...

I think Washington will be interested only if the dictator also has oil or some other important natural resource....

Regarding private sector stuff, there is no emphasis on human development which in reality should be the cornerstone of the governments efforts....

paulose said...

You would normally think that the private sector is no good at improving the lot of the poor. But this has been proved wrong in many cases. But has been proved right in many cases also.
Take for example the Grameen bank, which is a for private organisation, far better at providing credit to the poor than any govt.
Similarly the private sector has been far better at improving the telecom infrastructure in India than any govt scheme. Yes its true that they don't focus on the rural areas, but prefer to pluck the low hanging fruit. However over time they will find a way to connect the rural areas in a cost effective manner.
But the private sector usually goes after the profit and hence does neglect humanitarian problems and unprofitable but nescessary spending. But what governments should do is to spend money on things that the private sector is not interested in and leave what they are interested in to them. Pursue electrification in rural areas and leave electrification in Industrial and Urban areas to the private sector. Leave the arena of TV and radio to the private sector. Make popular roads and highways toll roads that are maintained by the private sector and focus on the rural network. Privatise railways, ports, tax collection, and everything else that they can.
They'll save a bunch of money and they can focus on what's important.